History, History!

All Americans just witnessed history, in fact, the whole world witnessed history in the election of Barack Obama as the first African-American President of the United States. As they say at the start of the Olympics, let the games begin! Obama has inherited an unenviable task. Not just the US, but the world financial markets are in disarray, wars are being waged in Afghanistan and Iraq, hostile circumstances exist with both Iran and Russia, and campaign promises are now suddenly due.

I congratulate Barack Obama for an absolutely amazing campaign. Speaking of history, never has a better funded nor better organized campaign ever been run. If the Republican party ever wants to have relevance again they need to learn not only from the McCain mistakes, but also, the Obama success formula. As they say in Britain, "Well done mate!"

For the record, two things killed John McCain. The first was the selection of Sarah Palin as a VP running mate and second was the bumbled handling of the financial crisis. The strongest weapon that McCain had in his arsenal was the experience card, which he threw away with the little known Palin pick. And the "suspend the campaign" tactic backfired more than my 1973 AMC Gremlin. How would I have fixed those two things you ask? Many think it was Palin's conservative bent that ruined McCain, but the selection of Mike Huckabee instead would have been a highly competitive ticket. And he could have recovered from the financial tactical snafu by voting against the rescue plan in the end. Though a plan of some kind was needed, one that included $150B in earmarks (pork) was contrary to one of McCain's key messages. Political death often comes from the smallest of details, though the Palin mistake was HUGE.

So where do we go from here? Those nagging campaign promises will now "come home to roost" and, frankly, many will be difficult if not impossible to accomplish. Obama will likely moderate and he will be forced to be right of the current Democratic leadership in Washington. And his first alligator infested waters to swim through will be shedding his mostly anti-capitalistic rhetoric and alleged position and work on fortifying the US financial markets. The reason is that too many American Democrats have 401ks that are at risk, too. To recommend government funded alternatives or to continue tough talk on global trade (protectionism) will lead to people being worse off in 4 years than they are today; the ultimate metric of a successful Presidential term. Remember, January 20, 2009 will not only be Obama's first day as President, but also the first day of his new campaign for President in 2012.

In my opinion, universal healthcare will have to be tabled in Obama's first term as it is simply too expensive to pursue in light of other priorities. If you think that the federal deficit is high now just wait for the next deficit defying stimulus package that will be proposed. Taking a page out of Reagonomics (credit driven consumption by all...er...supply sided economics) the US Congress will rush to put together yet another government funded initiative designed to get our economy jump started and out of this ditch. If Obama is smart (which he is) he will work his last days as a Senator to get a stimulus package approved and credited to the Bush administration. This would then be a win-win for him as he moves into his new role. If it works, he takes credit, if it fails he blames Bush.

This may surprise many who know me well, but I am actually looking forward to the new Obama administration. As the title of this article suggests, history is and will continue to be made as we move forward. My hope is that we will not repeat the Herbert Hoover history. Hoover was a Republican that raised taxes on the rich (similar to Obama's messaging) that took this country not only into the Great Depression but vaulted the Democrats into a historically long period of power and control of the Presidency of the United States. I hope that the history of Obama's presidency may be written as one that benefited all Americans for in his own words, "This is not a blue America nor a red America, but the United States of America!" Ladies and gentlemen let's give it up for President-elect Barack Obama...